April 24, 2008

Clinton vs. Obama

I have been sitting on the fence in the Clinton vs. Obama race.  I have deplored the negativity of both candidates when it appears, and hoped we could find a nominee SOONER rather than later, to bring Party unity and begin to concentrate on countering the rising popularity of the anointed Republican.

I must, however, lean toward Obama, for two purely political reasons (understanding that, in the nature of things, he is probably a bit less liberal than Clinton, which is against my personal predilections).

  1. Youth.  Obama has attracted a LOT of young people to his campaign, a large proportion of whom have become politically active for the first time.  These young people are, naturally, the future of the Democratic Party (or any political party) and we need to take their preferences seriously.  Results from primary after primary show that Obama is getting a large majority of the youth vote, Clinton a majority of Boomer votes.  We're "old" people now.
  2. The "fix."  Closely tied to the first point will be the presumption, among many of the young people who support Obama, that, if Clinton becomes the nominee, she will be because "the fix is in (among Party old-line power-brokers)," and they will simply stay away from the polls, making it more likely that McCain will win this fall.

The argument works both ways:  Obama will lose votes because of his race; Clinton because of her gender.  While I have no respect for either point of view, we must take it into consideration--from the purely political perspective.  I think that Obama's "racial negatives" (and please pardon me for the phrase) will be more than countered by the youth that will vote for him.  I think Clinton will lose much of that youth vote (not to McCain--they just won't vote).  While the "gender negatives" (again, pardon) of Clinton will probably be less than the lingering racism in this country (which is more subtle yet deeper than many of us believe--see the Southern Poverty Law Center's hate-group tracking project), the youth vote will more than offset that Obama disadvantage.

Finally, that intangible known as "Charisma" is always a factor.  It certainly was in 1960 and, I would argue, in 1992 electing, respectively, Kennedy and Clinton.  I'm not saying THIS Clinton has none, but Obama has buckets.  He can sway voters, and will when/if he can get on to a general election message.

Rachel Maddow:  I wholeheartedly agree with you.  While institutional memory is short (regarding the current Clinton vs. Obama struggle), the Dems. need to get PAST this fistfight and find themselves a nominee.  NOW.

April 23, 2008

US Immigration policy

I must look at immigration in the US, and its problems, from the lens of an historian (MA, history, Western Illinois University, 1994). A lot of what I hear and read about “solving” our “illegal immigration crisis” is simple crap.

Anybody that suggests to you that we can solve the immigration problem by 1) closing the borders, and 2) deporting existing illegal immigrants, is LYING TO YOU. Or they’re idiots.

Or both.

I drove to Chicago last week-end and, as I was between the FM stations I normally listen to and those I have set for Chicago, I was poking around the dial. I hit upon the Moody Bible station (I listened to Christian stations once in a while just to see what the lunatic fringe is up to). The moderator was discussing the impending Secret Evil Plan (apologies to Glenn Greenwald, who uses strategic capitalization to emphasize the traits of those he wishes to excoriate—to great effect) to form the North American Union (good grief). This moderator opposed that Evil Plan, of course, and said “it should be a simple matter to (all together now) close the borders and deport illegals.”

But let’s look at some facts: 1) NO COUNTRY IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD has been able to control its borders. Except, maybe, North Korea for people who want to get in (since there are none).

Rome spent a large part of its fortune trying to keep Germanic tribes out, eventually paying them to guard Roman borders for the Romans. That worked out nicely.

And didn’t the Chinese try that wall thing? Didn’t the French before World War II? Weren’t castles made obsolete, no later than the 14th century, by the introduction of gun powder used in siege cannon? By the way: it’s estimated that a Chinese laborer died for every yard of the Wall, during its construction—and it didn’t work.

Then, let’s look at US borders. No, not just our border with Mexico, but our entire border—water as well as land. I’m going to say it’s 10,000 miles, which is way less than it actually is. We could certainly end the unemployment problem if we hired guards. But, alas, in the era of Grover Norquist (fools don’t get links) and opposition to any and all new taxes, there wouldn’t be any way to pay those guards. No wait: we could borrow more money and let our grandchildren pay it off. I’m sure the Chinese and Japanese central banks would love to loan it to us.

Didn’t Boeing Aircraft design and build a test  “virtual border fence?” What about that? $28 million later it doesn't work it seems. $28 million for 28 miles. Hmmmm. For 10,000 miles, that’d be 10,000 million dollars, just to build it--$10 billion. Oh wait again: I guess we could, since that’s less than a month’s expenditure in Iraq. And, I suppose, there’d be economies of scale as Boeing built more and more miles. But remember: the test virtual fence didn’t work. And, if we did built it, we’d have to service it. We could contract that job out to the private sector, of course, because they’d be more efficient.

NOTE: I was going to turn the “Boeing Aircraft,” above, into a link to the part of their website devoted to the virtual fence, but there was no information about it on the Boeing site.

The simple fact is that no nation can control who enters and leaves it. A nation can try, and maybe should, but it will never be entirely successful. For instance: I happen to know two illegals: one who entered illegally and is now legal (via marriage) and another who is still illegal.  In both cases they came to America on tourist visas and simply overstayed their visas. Even if we could, somehow, seal off our border I doubt, in time, it would slow immigration one bit.

All right: let’s assume the impossible—we have Sealed Our Borders. Now it’s time for step two: deporting illegals. I’ve seen lots of estimates of the number of illegals in the US.  The number I'll use, a conservative number, is 10-11 million. How are we, as a nation, going to physically remove them, and at what cost? What about hiring enough authorities to line up every one currently residing in this country and asking him/her to verify his/her citizenship? No Bill of Rights problems there.

Then how are you going to detain them (which means feeding, clothing, housing, schooling, medical care), and arrange and pay for flights/buses/trains/ships out of the country? It simply cannot be done, especially not in a society that is purportedly free. I could take some time and do the math, but I think it is unnecessary. Just calculate the number of children that will be born during detention and compare it to the number we can actually deport in the same period. And for some that detention will be long term.

I also hear a lot of myths. “Illegals consume scarce public services.” “They’re all on welfare.” “They won’t assimilate into our culture.” “They cause lots of crime.”

  1. Most all illegals, who are by and large Hispanic, work fiercely hard. They have acquired a well-deserved reputation as tough, dependable workers.
  2. To go on welfare means giving government a lot of information. Would an illegal really do that, and risk being found-out and deported? Yes, I’m sure there are a lot of children of illegals who go to school, but most of them aren’t illegal—they were born here. Also: should we really make sure illegals receive no education? Or, to put it another way: make sure they are the most ignorant and dependent people in our society?
  3. True, there are large Hispanic neighborhoods in many cities. Just like Jews, Irish, Italians, Eastern-Europeans (Polish in Chicago), and every other “minority” group that has entered this country in the past, including all of our ancestors.
  4.   Crime? Who says? Again: being an illegal means making yourself as invisible as possible. Is committing crime the best way to do that?

For all of these myths, where are the numbers? Of course, bloviators don’t need numbers: don’t confuse me with no stinking numbers. They just need a place to screech.

What we need is a logical, fact-based immigration policy. Immigrants are here, legally or illegally. They will continue to arrive until our society becomes poor enough that it is undesirable for them to come (and we’re heading that way, it seems—is that how we solve our immigrant “problem?”). We have to account for and deal with immigrants somehow.

 I don’t have such a policy handy, but that doesn’t mean it can’t exist. It will be a combination of a guest worker policy, some sort of amnesty for those already living here (because there’s no alternative), and assimilation through generations, as have most all earlier immigrant groups. And those that haven’t been assimilated are in their situation because the majority population won’t let them, not (at least originally) because the immigrants didn’t want to.

I'll let people comment some day soon.  For now, though, I want to get a few posts up and not have to worry about checking those who comment, etc.

April 22, 2008

Why another blog?

I have begun blogging because I want to express a point of view that I believe is missing from the commentariat.  Here is where I am coming from:

  1. I am blogging from a small town in west-central Illinois.  As a small-school, high school teacher of history and government, I stay current with local, state and national news.  This is a point of view rare among serious bloggers.
  2. While I am very liberal, I believe I am also a practical observer of what is going on around me--again locally, in Illinois, and nationally/internationally.
  3. As a Vietnam veteran (1972, Navy), I believe I have the legitimacy to comment on today's crop of chickenhawks and their easily-expressed opinions, now that they are too old for government service.  It is endlessly fascinating to me that war hawks like Dick Cheney seem perfectly willing to sacrifice other's blood and our treasure in wars of foreign adventure, after he was "too busy" or had "other priorities," so couldn't be drafted on five different occasions.
  4. I plan to do little original research but instead comment on what's already out there.  I realize this puts me at least a step below those intrepid journalists I admire--those few who still actually practice the profession.  Again:  I believe I am different because of my perspective.
  5. Other subjects I will tackle include Illinois state and local government and the disastrous state of public education--an institution I absolutely believe in but one that is being systematically mangled by bureaucrats and educational "experts" who understand little about American classrooms.
  6. I will blog from two relatively unheard points of view:  small-town/rural America, and America away from the "coasts."  I will particularly point out our nation's big city and bi-coastal arrogance toward and dismissal of what is often called "the heartland."  I don't think we're nearly as stupid and out-of-touch as those who live in crowded areas or near large bodies of water believe.